A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
