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Increasing apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that efforts to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Border

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, the officer, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President the president. The two endorsed a statement that the war was concluded – a move that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

But ties have subsequently deteriorated again.